2008 opens with change in the air.
Hollywood
quivers under the clout of a potentially drastic change to the industry with an
ongoing Writer’s Guild strike. Studios face a future filled with gaps as
scripts become more sparse and projects face delays. Networks cope with the
prospect that high-profile awards ceremonies will get shortchanged by the
absence of important figures. And yours truly has settled back into a groove he
had not expected to return to when he gave it up over five years ago: sifting
through heaps of awards hoopla in order to come up with a fairly accurate
prediction of what the envelopes might contain when the Oscar nominations are
announced this Tuesday morning.
Indeed, if I have spent countless
hours on this specific task in the recent weeks, gnawing at prospects until the
absolute last minute, it is because the time away from this intricate pastime
has created a certain insecurity about my prior accuracy in this venture. The
Academy has changed, evolved, grown to recognize the progress of filmmakers and
the promise of modern sensibility when it comes to honoring engrossing material
at the cinema. After treading to formula year after year well into this last
decade, what a welcome change it was to see stimulating, mind-altering dark
horses like “Crash” and “The Departed” walk away with top honors.
Those victories have eaten away at
a semi-conscious desire to completely detach from the movie awards machine, and
now I find myself embracing, once again, the opportunity to study, analyze,
predict and react as this industry consumes our senses in its attempts to say
something significant and lasting on the quality of the motion picture over the
previous year. What separates 2008 from most, of course, is that the fragile
state of the industry as a result of the writer’s strike adds much to the
facet. This is not an ordinary awards year. Much is uncertain, much is
unsettled. But it will nonetheless unfold in a manner that will have us
enthralled with anticipation.
BEST PICTURE
Predictions:
Atonement
Juno
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood
Wild Card Contenders:
American Gangster
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Michael Clayton
The Lowdown:
Because of the nature of the conflict that has afflicted Hollywood on every
cylinder since last December, the year of movies has, moreso than any other,
been looked at as the year of the writer. As such, the Academy will follow a
trajectory that allows them to recognize as many distinct scripts as possible
in their higher award categories. Pictures will consist of a sweet and
good-natured comedy (“Juno”), a critical triumph (“No Country for Old Men”), a
drama that tears apart the seams of its source material (“There Will Be
Blood”), and a traditional and beloved period piece adapted from an
equally-praised source (“Atonement”). Of possible fifth nominees, I go with Tim
Burton’s “Sweeney Todd,” a movie that has won over critics and audiences alike,
essentially for being not just a weird visual piece in the Burton tradition, but for also being a
musical penned by Stephen Sondheim. The industry saw a handful of successful
musicals find their way into theaters over the last 12 months, and the Academy
will recognize that detail by nominating the most challenging of the crop.
BEST DIRECTOR:
Predictions:
Tim Burton, “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
Joel and Ethan Coen, “No Country for Old Men”
Jason Reitman, “Juno”
Julian Schnabel, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”
Joe Wright, “Atonement”
Wild Card Contenders:
Paul Thomas Anderson, “There Will Be Blood”
Tony Gilroy, “Michael Clayton”
Todd Haynes, “I’m Not There”
The Lowdown:
Tradition paves the way for a discrepancy in this category, in which only four
of the five films nominated for top honors will see their directors receive
recognitions as well. It’s anyone’s guess as to who of the five will falter,
but my guess is that Anderson, who did the incredible “There Will Be Blood,” is
the least-known of the major contenders, and therefore not as essential. His
place will likely be filled by Julian Schnabel, whose “The Diving Bell and the
Butterfly” was so acclaimed a picture that Miramax didn’t even bother pushing
for a Foreign Language Film nomination, opting instead to try and secure it
some recognition in the bigger categories.
BEST LEADING ACTOR
Predictions:
George Clooney, “Michael Clayton”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “There Will Be Blood”
Johnny Depp, “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet
Street”
Emile Hirsch, “Into the Wild”
James McAvoy, “Atonement”
Wild Card Contenders:
Ryan Gosling “Lars and the Real Girl”
John C. Reilly, “Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story”
The Lowdown:
Undoubtedly the most secure of this year’s acting categories is that for Lead
Actor, and the Academy will reflect that sentiment by offering its five
nomination slots to the highest profile contenders of the entire awards season.
Weakest link: Johnny Depp, who was nominates years prior for the first “Pirates
of the Caribbean” film, and whose role as a murderous barber perhaps might not
be nearly enough a departure for him to be seen as significant by voters.
Upsets, by the same token, have more going against them than any of the likely
sure bets.
BEST LEADING ACTRESS
Predictions:
Julie Christie, “Away From Her”
Marion Cotillard, “La Vie En Rose”
Angelina Jolie, “A Mighty Heart”
Kiera Knightley, “Atonement”
Ellen Page, “Juno”
Wild Card Contenders:
Amy Adams, “Enchanted”
Cate Blanchett, “Elizabeth :
The Golden Age”
Jodie Foster, “The Brave One”
The Lowdown: The
great roles for ladies were far in between for Hollywood
actresses, who often saw themselves turning in brilliant performances in
mediocre films (a prospect that hurts the odds of many, no matter how inspiring
a portrayal may be). As such, we can likely forget about Cate Blanchett
repeating history by being nominated a second time as Queen Elizabeth I;
instead, the token bio-pic slots will be given to Cotillard and Jolie, both of
whom were critically lauded in equally well-received pictures. The real sure
things, needless to say, are Julie Christie and Ellen Page, who have taken 95
percent of the industry awards thus far and will be competing for top honors no
matter who their competitors turn out to be.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predictions:
Casey Affleck, “The Assassination of Jesse James by the
Coward Robert Ford”
Javier Bardem, “No Country for Old Men”
Phillip Seymour-Hoffman, “Charlie Wilson’s War”
John Travolta, “Hairspray”
Tom Wilkinson, “Michael Clayton”
Wild Card Contenders:
Paul Dano, “There Will Be Blood”
Max von Sydow, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”
The Lowdown:
Again, male actors benefit the most from the 2007 movie selection, and
supporting roles were achievements in themselves. It is inconceivable for this
category to be missing either Javier Bardem or Phillip Seymour-Hoffman, while
Tom Wilkinson, who has the respect and the reputation with Hollywood that gets him noticed in even the
most obscure of roles, will earn a much-deserved kudos here for his work in
“Michael Clayton.” The Academy also loves a sentimental favorite sneaking in
under the wire, and here they will make room for John Travolta, who is not only
admired greatly by his peers, but also well acknowledged for the fact that he
took such a drastic departure from the norm by, well, playing a woman in the
movie adaptation of the “Hairspray” broadway musical.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Predictions:
Cate Blanchett, “I’m Not There”
Nikki Blonski, “Hairspray”
Saorise Ronan, “Atonement”
Amy Ryan, “Gone Baby Gone”
Tilda Swinton, “Michael Clayton”
Wild Card Contenders:
Catherine Keener, “Into the Wild”
Naomi Watts, “Eastern Promises”
The Lowdown:
Nominations will be split amonst a diverse group of ladies in supporting roles,
ranging from the strong and intelligent (Swinton) to the heartbreaking (Ryan)
to the utterly bizarre and mind-altering (Blanchett, who is also deserving of
the win). For balance, the Academy will also throw in child actor Saorise
Ronan, who does great work with little material in “Atonement,” and Nikki
Blonski, the young and new actress who bubbles with charm as the heroine of
“Hairspray.”
Other Predictions:
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Gangster
I’m Not There
Juno
Michael Clayton
The Savages
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Zodiac
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
12
The Counterfeiters
Days of Darkness
The Trap
The Unknown
ANIMATED FEATURE
Bee Movie
Beowulf
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood
CINEMATOGRAPHY
300
Atonement
No Country For Old Men
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Sunshine
VISUAL EFFECTS
300
The Golden Compass
Transformers
Written by DAVID KEYES
Written by DAVID KEYES
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