Predicting the Winners of the 90th Oscars

Heading fretfully into its 90th year, Oscar is set to descend on a bold and foreign new climate when the curtain rises on Hollywood this Sunday. He has never been one to scoff at the wide array of political trends that dominate his parties, to be sure, but even he must be sensing a strange air looming over the 2018 ceremony. It was, after all, the year that sexual abuse dominated the headlines and diminished the glitz of the city’s bright lights. And now in the final hour of those revelations, the notorious #MeToo movement looks poised to flip the script on the industry right down to its most treasured traditions – including the annual practice of handing out those famous gold statues everyone covets.

Contention in the Contest: A Final Word on the 2016 Academy Awards

Audiences who descended on the Dolby Theater in Hollywood on Sunday night were certainly expecting active discussion about the diversity issue at the Academy Awards, but when Chris Rock took the stage to open this year’s ceremony, they probably didn’t expect it to be as sharp and insistent as it wound up being. What it also was, even amongst the numerous laughs, was an opportunity for the comedian to use his tongue to spread around the underlying blame of the issue, even to those on his side of the aisle. In one of the night’s most memorable jokes, his aim fell directly on Jada Pinkett-Smith, who lashed out after her husband, Will Smith, wasn’t nominated. “Jada boycotting the Oscars is like me boycotting Rihanna’s panties,” he shot back. “I wasn’t invited!”

A Movement of Trophies: 2016 Oscar Musings and Predictions

As we draw closer to the 88th Oscar telecast, a very visible dark cloud has nestled over the motion picture academy in what many are calling a divisive year of contention. It is a scenario made all the more prominent by the very public outcry made by members in the voting body, who have called for a boycott of the ceremony because of a distinct lack of diversity in the actor’s playing field – namely, a shortlist that includes no black actors. Spike Lee, one of the more vocal members, refuses to participate or watch. Others have suggested that Chris Rock, who is assigned hosting duties, to resign from participating. And with various other members of the debate lending support – or opposition – to the cause, the prevalent feeling is that all the attention of possible winners has been absorbed by the politics of the scenario, creating distinct divides that have both escalated the issue and opened old wounds.

The 87th Academy Awards: A Muted Celebration

It all began with a bang of nostalgic fanfare – a brief and curiously overpowering one. Host Neil Patrick Harris emerged from a stage decorated in floating lights and Oscar statuettes that seemed borrowed right from one of his treasured musicals, and broke into the kind of song and dance routine we have come to expect of such a vivacious showman: the sort that was equal parts energetic and colorful while still holding its own within context of the night’s purpose, which was to celebrate another year’s worth of moving pictures. As he danced in unison with silhouetted projections on a backdrop that emphasized the famous moments of “Singing in the Rain” and “North by Northwest,” he (along with supporting vocalists Anna Kendrick and Jack Black) brought a sense of much-needed unity to a room where political ideologies and cutthroat voting campaigns often reduce onlookers to feigning cordial platitudes. Yes, Harris was going to make everyone in this auditorium beam with the same sense of joy that good movies are supposed to leave us with, and it was clear from that brilliant opening note that he wouldn’t have it any other way.

Boys, Birds and Budapest Hotels – 2015 Oscar Predictions

As enthusiasts of the movies, there are certain rituals we partake in that are equal parts amusing and infuriating. The annual ceremony of the Academy Awards is the most definitive of those traditions. Each year they seem to creep up on us without warning or rhythm, and in nearly all instances our enthusiasm is evenly matched by a sense of exhausted de ja vu, as if to imply not enough time has gone by to warrant yet another exercise in public popularity contests. Yet we watch on without reservation like spectators at a game of chance, knowing full well that the outcome is always the same even as the selections of movies evolve creatively and artistically through the pass of time.

The 2014 Academy Awards: A Final Snapshot

There was a moment early in the 86th Academy Award telecast where the host, Ellen Degeneres, called attention to a lavishly dolled up Liza Minnelli, referring to her as the “best Liza impersonator I have ever seen.” It followed with the definitive zinger of the night (“Good job, sir!”) and the most unpleasant look on the face of a notable audience member (Miss Liza appeared to be none too pleased). Most probably would find such a comment a norm for most modern comedians, but for Ms. Degeneres, it was the closest she could ever come to creating a sensationalized criticism of anyone in her audience. After the audacious demeanors of hosts like Seth MacFarlane and Jon Stewart in recent years, Ellen emerged as more subdued and engaging, often playing it safe so that the words of the movies spoke for themselves.

All That’s Golden… Is Still Golden: 2014 Oscar Predictions

Like friends who move in and out of your life because of changing paths, Oscar and I haven’t seen much of each other in a while. Notable disagreements put a wedge between us over several years, and from that conflict there came a lack of enthusiasm in maintaining a presence at his parties beyond superficial observations and cynical sound bites. Yet somehow, even when our relationship reached a pitch of unfortunate discord, I always figured we would connect again, with little doubt in the reasoning: the mutual love of the movies we both share always unites us as a consequence, just as it does to everyone who goes to the cinema.

Oscars 2008: Nominee Predictions

2008 opens with change in the air. Hollywood quivers under the clout of a potentially drastic change to the industry with an ongoing Writer’s Guild strike. Studios face a future filled with gaps as scripts become more sparse and projects face delays. Networks cope with the prospect that high-profile awards ceremonies will get shortchanged by the absence of important figures. And yours truly has settled back into a groove he had not expected to return to when he gave it up over five years ago: sifting through heaps of awards hoopla in order to come up with a fairly accurate prediction of what the envelopes might contain when the Oscar nominations are announced this Tuesday morning.

Oscars 2003: Nominee Reactions

February 28, 2003

If there's one thing worse than being unfair, it's being predictable; that, at least, is the popular theory as far as award shows are concerned. And when the results for this year's Oscar nominees were revealed early on Tuesday, February 11, the only logical thing anyone could do was leap to their feet, throw their heads back in disbelief, and wonder with a certain vexation in their voice, "I waited all this time just for THAT?"

Oscars 2003: Nominee Predictions, or "How We Will Honor Crap and Ignore Greatness"

February 7, 2003

The headaches are coming, people. Just imagine it: months and months of speculation, discussion, argument and excitement over the year's finest achievements in filmmaking are all about to be flushed down the toilet as we inch ever so closer to Sunday, March 23, the day when Hollywood stands still, brilliance is left without reward, and highly-promoted underachievers walk up to podiums to accept awards that have about as much lasting impression on viewers as a Rob Schneider flick. And if that isn't enough to suggest oncoming migraines, just imagine this: award winners opening up folded sheets of paper to dish out some long-winded and sappy acceptance speeches, only to have their words sidelined by a gung-ho orchestra trying hard to keep the ceremony under a four-hour running time when they know darn well it is nearly an impossible feat.

Oscars 2002: From The Director's Chair...

March 15, 2002

Hollywood's biggest night of the year is slowly but surely creeping up on us movie fans, fueling lengthy discussions about not just the year's most recognized motion picture achievements, but movies, awards and celebrities in general. It is a time of widespread anxiety for the film industry, clouded by uncertain outcomes and saturated with speculation. And those who have the potential of being called into the spotlight to accept an Oscar no doubt quiver with fear and excitement.

Oscars 2002: Winner Predictions

March 15, 2002

Any avid moviegoer will tell you how the attempt to make predictions of Oscar victors has become a coveted American pastime, but few of them will be able to express in words how addictive, frustrating and time consuming it actually is. That concept has never been more apparent than this year, as a careful look over the 74th Academy Awards voting ballot is an instant invitation to hours of piercing headaches.

The elaborate guessing game that tends to befuddle even the most successful predictors is even more of an obstacle this time around than it has been in years past. In recent memory, viewers, critics and analysts could at least depend on "weak spots" (or nominees who seemed susceptible to being forgotten) in major categories to help narrow their predictions down. Now, in a year when five seemingly invulnerable pictures have been grouped in the ceremony's most coveted category, the opportunity to close the gap has become much more difficult.

Oscars 2002: Nominee Predictions

February 8, 2002

Imagine what goes through the mind of an Academy member during the first few weeks of the new year.

He or she is required to process the last 12 months of movie releases in order to coherently fill out their ballots for the upcoming Academy Award nominations, a feat that can be rather difficult if the prior year was a cinematically potent one. Just what do they think of the material released in 2001, though? Are the best movie choices clear? Is there a lack of decent material to nominate? And what will they remember (or forget) when it comes time to turn in their final ballots?

Oscars 2001: Winner Reactions

Many wonder why journalists even bother to make predictions on Oscar winners; seldom are their forecasts accurate to the actual results. This year, I can certainly identify with these kinds of people.

After six weeks of long and hard contemplation and personal debates, I forged up my own, comprehensive list of winner predictions, only to have it thrown directly back in my face by a slew of surprises, upsets, and utter jaw-droppers at the 73rd Annual Academy Awards. It is always said that we cannot expect anything from the Academy, but who would have guessed so many predictions could be thrown so far off track?

Oscars 2001: Preserving the Secrecy of the Ballot

As Hollywood prepares for another ceremony in which the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences honors the year’s best in cinema, countless industry experts (most notably journalists) continue in a long and frustrating attempt to do what so far no one has been able to thus far: unveil the results of winners before the envelopes are torn open on stage.

It is a temptation that the industry has had for more than 50 years, and now, with the threat of things like Internet site hacking and academy member polling looming large over the event, keeping those well-guarded secrets hidden until the annual telecast becomes even more difficult.

Oscars 2001: Winner Predictions

In less than two days, Hollywood will be buzzing over the many celebrated victories at this year’s Academy Awards. Perhaps the anticipation preceding the ceremony may be much greater than what follows it, though.

Creeping anxiously towards Oscar night 2001, we as moviegoers are seeing one of the biggest debates among industry insiders, critics, and audiences of the past ten years: who exactly are the front-runners among this year’s nominees, and who’s to say that they won’t be upset by other highly-observed contenders? Part of the calm atmosphere that has swirled around the ceremony in the past is the fact that the majority of the winners were usually imperative; this year, almost nothing can be ruled out as a sure thing, especially since the year’s top three picture contenders (Ang Lee’s “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator,” and Steven Soderbergh’s “Traffic”) each appear to have a large voter following behind them.

Oscars 2001: Nominee Reactions

In contrast to everything that the masses had embraced at the movie theater last year, the final nominees for this year's Academy Awards ceremony were not much of a surprise. Too bad that doesn't make most of them deserved. With movies like "How The Grinch Stole Christmas," "The Perfect Storm," and even "102 Dalmatians" turning up nominations for the 73rd year, one wonders exactly how many of the contending movies Academy voters saw throughout the past year.

Oscars 2001: Nominee Predictions

If members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences enjoy a challenge, they need not to look any further than their first big task of the year: nominating for this year's already-anticipated Academy Awards ceremony. The reason? Never before had the movie industry seen such a diverse supply of endeavors at its disposal, especially in the last few months of 2000, when every other decent release in theaters was either highly nostalgic or incredibly original. Who could have ever foreseen, for example, a movie like "Cast Away" being released just within weeks of something like "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon?"

Oscars 2000: Winner Reactions

Last Sunday night saw a turnout in Hollywood more massive than the one in London when the press found out Madonna was pregnant with her second child.

It was the evening of the Academy Awards, an annual ceremony devoted to honoring the best movies of the year in various categories; and as such, celebrities from every corner of the globe showed up to watch the contenders vie for the top prizes.

Unfortunately, like so many telecasts before it, the 72nd evening of the Oscars was nothing short of a bore—a dreary and predictable experience in which the real Oscar winners were ignored for much more mainstream (and sometimes undeserving) front-runners.

Oscars 2000: Winner Predictions

The word "surprise" is one of the most frequently used during Oscar night, and when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences unveils this year's winners during Sunday's telecast of the 72nd annual awards ceremony, don't be amazed to hear it a few more times.

We've approached an era in which anything is possible at the tear of the envelope, as seen most recently with the surprise win of "Shakespeare In Love," which went up against Spielberg's World War II epic "Saving Private Ryan," just last year. This time around Hollywood is treading on similar territory; Dreamworks Pictures, which owns "Saving Private Ryan," now has "American Beauty" to deal with; meanwhile the brains behind Miramax, whose campaigning of "Shakespeare" left many feeling like they had bought the Best Picture Oscar, are hoping that their much-publicized surprise hit "The Cider House Rules" will make it out on top. It's a battle of clashing forces, as it seems: both films are leaving their other competition ("The Green Mile," "The Insider," and "The Sixth Sense") literally in the dust thanks to heavy publicity. But who will actually win? Now there's a good question!